One-Way Ticket from Denver to D.C.

In my previous post “Why the Caps Need to Sign Huet“, I argued that Huet performed better than the Caps’ other goaltenders in the 2007-2008 NHL season, at least with respect to their goals-against averages, and save percent.

One day after Huet signed with Chicago, and the Caps signed Jose Theodore, I wondered how he stacked up against those 3 netminders from last year. The previous post’s calculations for all 3 guys included only games played as a Washington Capital. Since Theodore has yet to make his debut at Verizon Center, his GAA and SV% were calculated using all his games from this past year (regular season and playoffs) for the Avalanche.

Here’s the dirt. Reference that other post for the GAA and SV% algorithms.

Goalie	Minutes Played	Total Shots	Total Goals	GAA	SV%
Kolzig	3,154	1,423	153	2.91	0.892
Johnson	1,032	500	46	2.67	0.908
Huet	1,222	571	43	2.11	0.925
Theodore	3,542	1,653	150	2.54	0.909

I suppose a case could be made that by counting only Huet’s 20.3 games as a Capital artificially inflates his stats. But I’d point out that Johnson played only 17.2 games last year.

From a purely statistical standpoint, Theodore is better than both Kolzig and Johnson, but not as good as Huet by a long shot.

Their career stats tell a different story. That is–for all intents and purposes–they’re pretty much interchangeable. Here’s hoping that Theodore, standing in net behind the same guys as those other 3 Caps goalies, can match Huet’s success.

Questions Answered

About 2 months ago, I asked a lot of questions. Here are the answers:

Art Ross, Maurice “Rocket” Richard, Jack Adams, Hart Memorial, Lester B. Pearson.

Quite a number of trophies to add to the Washington Capitals’ glass case, eh?

While ultimate victory will have to wait, this past season reminds me of another NHL team that succeeded after being the worst team in the league a few years running, and their subsequent rebuild.

I only hope the Caps do it while I still live here.

Why the Caps Need to Sign Huet

Before we get started w/ the stats, a remedial math course… as it relates to hockey goaltenders.

Goals Against Average (GAA) is calculated like this:
You take the total minutes that the goalie played in the season (including the playoffs, if desired) and divide that by 60, since there are 60 minutes in a regular NHL game (not including overtime or the shootout). That gives you the number of games played by the goalie (not always a whole number). I can only imagine that overtime or shootout minutes are not included in that goalie’s total-minutes-played stat because these are not “regular” periods; they only happen when necessary. Then, you take the total number of goals scored against that goalie (empty-net goals are not included, since he wasn’t on the ice at the time) and divide that by the number of games (figured previously). That gives you the average number of goals scored against that goalie in 60 minutes (or, per game). That’s your goals-against-average, or GAA.

So it’s:
TOTAL MINUTES / 60 = GAMES PLAYED
… then:
TOTAL GOALS ALLOWED / GAMES PLAYED = GAA

Mathematical shorthand is:
(GOALS ALLOWED x 60) / TOTAL MINUTES = GAA

The lower the GAA number, the better the goaltender’s performance.

Save Percent (SV%) is calculated like this:
You take the total number of shots that a goalie faced all season (including the playoffs, if desired), and subtract the total number of goals scored against him. That gives you the total number of “saves” he had… or the number of shots he didn’t let into the net. You then take that number of saves, and divide it by the total number of shots (from before), and that gives you the percentage of shots he didn’t let into the net. That’s your save percent, or SV%.

So it’s:
(TOTAL SHOTS - TOTAL GOALS) / TOTAL SHOTS = SV%

The higher the SV%, the better the goaltender’s performance.

Now, for those of you unfamiliar with the situation in D.C. over the course of the 2007-2008 regular season and playoffs: Olaf Kolzig was the starting goaltender for the majority of the season; Brent Johnson was the backup all season (while not injured, and before Huet came along), and Cristobal Huet was acquired at the trade deadline for the Caps’ playoff run, effectively supplanting Kolzig as the starter for the end of the regular season, and throughout the Caps’ 7-game playoff series (relegating Olie to the backup position).

Long story longer… here’s what’s up:

Kolzig let in a total of 153 goals in 3,154 minutes on the ice. That gives him a GAA of 2.91.
Kolzig faced 1,423 total shots, and you know 153 of them went in. That gives him a SV% of 0.892.

Johnson let in a total of 46 goals in 1,032 minutes on the ice. That gives him a GAA of 2.67.
Johnon faced 500 total shots, and you know 46 of them went in. That gives him a SV% of 0.908.

That brings us to Huet. The following stats include playoff games, since he was the only Caps goalie to play during all 7 games; Kolzig and Johnson never made it to the ice.

Huet let in a total of 43 goals in 1,222 minutes on the ice. That gives him a GAA of 2.11.
Huet faced 571 total shots, and you know 43 of them went in. That gives him a SV% of 0.925.

Upshot?

Kolzig’s performance was the worst on the team. Johnson was better, given his meager minutes.

In only 20 games, Huet kicked the shit out of them both.

Introducing the Perez Cup

Immediately after the Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup, I received (among a shitload of sweet swag) two miniature, plastic Cup replicas from my brother who attended Game 7 in Tampa.

Last year, I quickly got sick of comparing my Stanley Cup playoff picks against the “experts” published on various sports-related websites across North America. This year, I invited all of my hockey-savvy friends and family to participate in a playoff competition.

Aside from my gorgeous-and-pregnant wife, only two had the balls to step up: “J” and “M”. Identifying information has been removed to provide anonymity, and also because I didn’t ask them if it’d be okay for me to post their picks.

The prize for winning the competition wasn’t really decided until I purchased a Dremel engraver offa’ the Amazon. After that, one of my two mini-Cups was destined to fall victim to the winner, as would everyone except Erin.

Here’s the final points tally, and here’s the reward:

Granted, I must work on my engraving skills (it was my first time!).

There’s plenty of room on that little plastic bitch to serve us well for years to come. If you missed this year’s competition, don’t miss it next year. Your name could end up on the Stanley Perez Cup.

My Wife the Hockey Fan: Part 2

I picked the Penguins to beat the Rangers in 5 games; Erin picked the Pens in 6. Watching the game this afternoon:

Erin: Okay, today you go for Pittsburgh, and I go for the Rangers.
Me: Can we shit-talk?
Erin: Hell yeah! Fuck that little faggot Crosby… little Hummel-looking motherfucker.

If ever there was any question as to why I married Erin, it should have just evaporated.

Brian Engblom is the New Barry Melrose

Ridiculous NHL talking-head coif versus older, ridiculous NHL talking head mullet. Thank $DEITY that Keith Jones knows a barber.

The Only Thing I can Say without Sounding Shallow

Does this tripe make The New Yorker if Avery plays in Phoenix? Not fucking likely. Also, how does such an egotistical prick pull off sounding kind of “normal guy” while–at the same time–being ultra-pretentious?

You’re an enigma, Sean Avery. And you’re trying too hard to be “interesting”.

Nota bene: I use “enigma” for lack of a better word. My vulgarity currently escapes me.

Any of my 4 readers have an appropriate noun or adjective?

Sudden Death: Caps/Flyers Game 7

It sucked when the Caps lost Game 7 at home, in overtime. They were up 1, tied, down 1, then tied at the end of the 2nd. There were no penalty calls for about 30 minutes, from a little over midway in the 2nd through 4 minutes into OT. Overtime is absolute victory or defeat; taking a penalty in overtime is almost certainly defeat. And that’s the way it shook out.

After the “aw, fuck!” silence from the stunned (and previously-deafening) crowd, we all stood up and gave the team an ovation.

Then the trash started raining down onto the ice. It was embarrassing. There’s even a clip of a Jeff Carter post-game, on-ice interview where he gets hit by a plastic beer bottle from the stands. As a Caps fan, I was pissed they lost to the Fuckin’ Flyers. But, as a Caps fan whose knuckles can clear a curb, I was more pissed at my “peers”.

Even worse, the guy who sits in row E (right in front of us) was in attendance with his young daughter, aged around 12 or 13. After the Flyers’ series-winning goal, a young boy about the same age as the aforementioned daughter ran to the glass in his Flyers jersey to celebrate. Row E guy then side-armed his empty beer cup at the overjoyed pre-teen, and kicked (hard!) the seats in row D. He’s normally a pretty nice guy, but his display last night takes him down multiple notches in my book. He was just a happy kid rooting for the other team, not a target for your anger, fuckhead.

The Caps fans weren’t any better outside the arena. Erin said she was on-edge as we walked around Verizon center, due to the density of very drunk, very angry red-clad assholes gushing obscenities at the minority wearing black and orange. I’ve never been to a live game of any sport in Philly, but I can only imagine last night’s bullshit was on par with some of the horror stories bandied about the city of brotherly love.

Anyway, I took some photos from the happier parts of the game.

Thoughts on the Caps’ Latest Playoff Performances

Fuck yeah!

Going to Game 7 in D.C. tomorrow.

That is all.

Thoughts on the Washington Capitals’ Playoff Performances

Fuck!